FSW Markets

Q3 Earnings Reporting Season Starts Next Week

October 4, 2024

After luxury brands reported a generally poorer than expected H1 and gloomy forward guidance (with some notable exceptions), we are gearing up for the start of Q3 earnings releases next week. The newly re-branded FSW Markets will be previewing market expectations over the next few days.

As a preview of coming attractions, this is the release schedule as it now stands for the month of October:

October 10 - LVMH

October 15 - Swatch Group

October 18 - EssilorLuxottica & Kering & Christian Dior & Brunello Cucinelli

October 24 - Hermès

October 31 - Prada

Stock valuations for luxury have generally been pretty weak this year, in step with previously reported earnings and discounted future earnings. The FSW Markets All Luxury Index is down about 1.5 percent while the S&P 500 is up over 20 percent.

As the chart below shows, there are some exceptions with Ferrari, Ralph Lauren, Prada Group, and Capri Holdings Limited suitor Tapestry outperforming the S&P while Richemont, EssilorLuxottica, Hermès, and Brunello Cucinelli posting positive year-to-date returns.

Brands struggling with both creative and corporate strategy, particularly Kering and Burberry, are faring the worst and find their share prices down over 35 and 50 percent, respectively.


Tapestry to sell Stuart Witzman

September 7, 2024

According to Footwear News, Tapestry is reportedly close to selling its Stuart Weitzman brand. The sale comes as Tapestry is preparing to face the Federal Trade Commission over its attempt to stop the $8.5 billion purchase of Capri Holdings Limited.

Seeking Alpha commented that the sale of Stuart Weitzman may help Tapestry fund the Capri deal.

Capri’s share price has tumbled over 30 percent year-to-date amid the takeover turbulence while Capri is up over 10 percent. The FSW High Frequency Luxury Monitor All Luxury index is down around 5 percent.


Burberry’s woes continue as it is ejected from the FTSE 100

September 6, 2024

The decision of the FTSE Russell to relegate Burberry from the FTSE 100 to FTSE 250 index on September 5 is not a surprise. Membership in the FTSE 100 is reviewed quarterly and there are usually a change or two. One of the key criteria is market capitalization, which is driven in part by share price. And Burberry's share price has been the worst performer on the index over the past year.

Burberry has also easily been the worst performing stock within the luxury industry this year. If we we compare Burberry's share price performance against the FSW High Frequency Luxury Monitor All Luxury Index, we find that it has fallen over 50 percent year-to-date as compared to a 5 percent decline for the industry as a whole (see plot below). So while the industry as a whole is facing macroeconomic headwinds this year, with some notable exceptions, Burberry has been in a class of its own.

This halving of Burberry's share price has led to a steep decline in Burberry's market capitalization, which currently stands at around 2.3 billion pounds, down from 6.5 billion pounds in 2023. This is probably the biggest decline of any company in the world over this period.

It is not unheard of for companies to be moved back up to the FTSE 100 index after a relegation to the FTSE 250, but this seems unlikely for Burberry in the near term. The company reported a 22 percent decline in Q1 retail revenues and the guidance from Burberry itself is for an operating loss in H1. 

There have been numerous changes in strategic direction at Burberry that have not ignited consumers' interest in the brand, including a significant investment in a visual and digital overhaul as well as some new brand activations with partners such as Harrod's. But these fell flat because they lacked strategic direction and did not enhance the image of the brand. We have not seen anything in their recent decisions that make me believe that its performance is going to turnaround over the next six to eight quarters.

Bryce Quillin PhD of FSW High Frequency Luxury Monitor spoke with Glossy about the plight of Burberry this week. https://www.glossy.co/fashion/fashion-briefing-why-revolves-ai-powered-search-is-a-game-changer-for-the-business/


Prada Outpaced the Rest of the Industry in H1 2024, with explosive growth by Miu Miu in China

Prada Group reported strong H1 2024 results today, with revenues growing by 17 percent (at constant exchange rates), exceeding analyst expectations. Adjusted EBIT growth was up 17 percent, which was sharply lower than than 48 percent growth in H1 2023, though margins remained solid at 22.6 percent.

Growth was explosive for Miu Miu, which comprises 23 percent of group revenues (up from 15 percent at the end of 2023), with revenues growing by 93 percent for the period of January to June after a searing 95 percent growth rate in Q2. Prada, comprising 75 percent of revenues, reported more moderate growth of 6 percent for H1, while Church's was up 15 percent for H1 after closing down 13 percent in 2023.

This rate of growth puts Prada Group well above that of other major luxury brands this earnings season with LVMH reporting H1 growth of 2 percent and Kering down 11 percent. Hermès reported growth of 12 percent in H1, yet unlike Prada, sequential quarterly growth was much weaker.

One of the differentiators among performers for H1 so far has the evenness of sales performance across geographies. Weaker performers have struggled in Asia, apart from Japan, while top performers continued to report growth across geographies.

Prada Group reported growth in Asia (which, excluding Japan, comprises 36 percent of revenue) of 12 percent, Europe (29 percent of revenue) at 18 percent, and the Americas (18 percent of revenue) at 7 percent. Like most other luxury brands this earnings season, growth in Japan (11 percent of revenue) was especially strong at 55 percent, driven in many cases by Chinese and other tourists arbitraging price disparities.

Prada has been the best performing luxury organization in 2024 with a total return of around 26 percent year-to-date, though volatility has been very high and the share price has trended down with the rest of the FSW High Frequency Luxury Monitor All Luxury Index since June. Compare this with the -14 percent total return from the industry’s market cap giant LVMH.

There may be a little room to grow with a P/E of 22.2x, which is on par with LVMH (21.5x) and Moncler (23.2x) but well below the levels of Brunello Cucinelli (46.4x) and Hermès (45.9x), though these are well down from the 50-60x valuations that we saw late last year.


This week’s super storm of earnings reports from the luxury industry confirmed everyone’s fears that the industry is continuing to slump and slump deeply from its post-pandemic zenith. 

July 27, 2024

On July 23, LVMH, the industry’s largest player by almost any measure, reported that overall revenue growth was up 2 percent in the first six months of 2024 when compared to the same period in 2023. The picture was much worse at industry laggard Kering, which reported a decline of 11 percent during the same period, with a whopping 20 percent decline at Gucci. Earnings reports by Hermès and Moncler, released on June 25, were less troubling with H1 growth rates up 12 and 11 percent. Yet even though these were well off the post-pandemic highs and Q2 outturns were significantly weaker than those in Q1.

Repeated poor attempts to forecast the state of the luxury market show how difficult it is to predict how industries will perform in the short-run. Yet, the leading indicators are not good. First, the numbers out of China were bad. For LVMH, H1 revenue growth in Asia (excluding Japan) was -10 percent and for Kering it was -22 percent. Hermès’ sales were up 6.8 percent, yet this was less than a third of the 24 percent growth rate recorded in H1 2023. Moreover, while Hermès has consistently been a strong industry performer, its strongest growth segments in H1 were its higher priced leather goods and saddlery sector (which contributes just over 40 percent of total group revenues) while its lower priced priced silks/textiles and perfume/beauty sectors (collectively less than 10 percent of revenues) came in at -1.7 percent and 3.9 percent. This lends some support to the view that the aspirational customer really is cooling their luxury spending.

If there is any empirical veracity to the oft repeated maxim that the wealthiest 2 percent of global consumers account for 40 percent of luxury spending, then the inverse shows that 60 percent of luxury revenues are at risk for at least the rest of the year and into Q1 2025.

Investors certainly believe this to be true as luxury equities have tanked since early May while the broader stock market has continued to trend upwards. The Fashion Strategy Weekly All Luxury Stock Index has fallen over 11 percent since May 1 while the S&P 500 has risen by 6.5 percent.


Collapsing Demand for Luxury Goods in Asia Pulls Down LVMH’s H1 2024 Results

July 27, 2024

On July 23, LVMH confirmed what most analysts expected and that is that luxury spending continues to cool and cool quickly. Overall revenue growth for the first six months of the year was down 1 percent, when compared with the same period in 2023, with organic growth up 2 percent and deleterious currency effects pulling down revenue by 3 percent.

The biggest driver of slowing sales growth was a collapse in Asia, particularly China. LVMH reported that H1 2024 revenue growth in Asia (excluding Japan) was down 10 percent after a 14 percent decline in Q2. Growth was positive though anemic in the U.S. and Europe with H1 growth up 2 and 3 percent, respectively. One bright spot is that revenue growth remained strong in Japan with H1 growth of 44 percent after a huge 57 percent spike in Q2. Japan can be a proxy for some underlying elements of demand in China, and parts of Southeast Asia, as favorable exchange rates make luxury purchases much cheaper. WWD reports that Louis Vuitton handbags can now be purchased at a 25 percent discount in Japan when compared with mainland China.

At the product level, most divisions reported negative growth in H1. The group’s biggest division, fashion and leather goods (comprising about 50 percent of total revenues) reported a decline of 2 percent, watches and jewelry (12 percent of revenue) was down 5 percent, and wine and spirits (about 6.5 percent of revenue) was down 12 percent. The biggest positive was Selective Retailing (Sephora, DFS, and Le Bon Marché comprising about 20 percent of revenue) was up 3 percent while perfumes and cosmetics (10 percent of revenue) was up 3 percent.

LVMH’s underlying financial strength remains sound. Operating free cash flow surged to €3.1 billion, from €1.4 billion in H1 2023 as the costs of debt servicing fell by 42 percent. The group’s net debt to equity ratio fell three percentage points year-over-year in H1 to 18 percent, which is massively down from the 36 percent reported at the end of H1 2021.

You can find LVMH’s financial results here: https://lnkd.in/eBuae

In intraday trading in New York, LVMH shares are down almost 4 percent after closing down 3.3 percent in Paris.


We are coming into a new earnings season and expectations are generally for the continuation of the weak sales growth in the luxury industry.

July 22, 2024

FSW High Frequency Luxury Monitor will be batch assessing the Q2 returns a few times over the course of the season. To get us started, below find a table that shows when to expect some the major releases. We also included each ticker's year-to-date total equity return, market capitalization, and P/E ratio.

The next few days will be extremely important to watch with LVMH and Richemont reporting on Tuesday (July 23), Kering and Moncler on Wednesday, and Hermès and EssilorLuxottica on Thursday.


Luxury has had a volatile 2024 as many of the bigger names have underperformed

This year has been a wild ride for the luxury industry. At the start year, expectations were that the industry would heavily underperform the post-pandemic boom years. Expectations were that sales growth, particularly to “aspirational” consumers, would normalize.

These grim expectations showed up in a seven percent decline in the FSW High Frequency All Luxury Index in the first month of the year. Yet, stronger than initially expected forecasts for global economic growth helped power the index up by almost 30 percent from the early year trough by mid-March. Yet, mixed Q1 and Q2 earnings reports since then have dragged the index down almost 20 percent since the spring-time peak. Just after the start of Q3, our luxury index is up about 5 percent for the year as compared to the S&P 500, which is up around 20 percent. Luxury has gone from a global sectoral leader to laggard.

Of the 16 luxury firms included in our index, 7 have had double digit returns this year but most of those have smaller cap weights. The biggest performers on the year comprise Ferrari (+30 percent on the year), Richemont (+28 percent), Ralph Lauren (+27 percent), Tapestry (+19 percent), and Hermès (+17 percent). Yet outside of Hermès, which has a 17 percent weighting in the index, all of these groups have weights of about 5 percent or less.

Luxury firms with larger cap weights have underperformed. The index’s largest constituent, LVMH (with a 30 percent weight) has gained under 4 percent on the year while L’Oréal (17 percent weight) and Christian Dior (10 percent weight) are down around 1.5 and 6 percent on the year, respectively. Though their weights are small, it is worth noting that Capri, Burberry, and Hugo Boss are all down around 30 percent year-to-date.


LVMH and Tapestry show that there is reason for some optimism in the luxury industry

April 16, 2024

Over the past day, markets have seen that while the post-pandemic luxury sales boom is indeed over, the industry continues to grow.

First, LVMH released its Q1 2024 results today after Paris trading closed, which showed that organic revenues grew by 3 percent relative to the same period in 2023. Currency depreciation effects had a strong impact on top line results during the quarter, lopping off 4 percent to take total revenues down 2 percent in Q1. These results were in line with market expectations though were LVMH’s weakest revenue growth numbers since the start of the pandemic luxury boom.

Revenue growth for LVMH was up around 2 percent in the U.S. and Europe though fell by 6 percent in China. Slowing consumer demand in China was revealed in late 2023, yet in the past week there may be some cause for optimism that China will bounce back over the course of 2024 and help lift luxury sales. Just today, China released data showing that its Q1 GDP hit 5.3 percent, smashing economists’ expectations for a 4.6 percent print. Also today, the IMF upgraded (https://lnkd.in/gY5z8Wip) its 2024 full year GDP growth forecast for China by 0.4 percentage points to 5.2 percent, which is 0.2 points higher than the government’s own target growth rate.

Outside of LVMH, Tapestry confirmed on April 15 that their planned $8.5 billion deal to buy Capri has received regulatory clearance from the European Union and Japan. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission continues to review the deal.

Luxury stocks outperformed the broader market today with the FSW High F luxury industry closing up by 0.6 percent, LVMH was up by over 1 percent, and Tapestry has been up close to 2 percent since they received EU and Japan clearance on Monday. The broader S&P 500 was down by 0.2 percent today.

You can find LVMH’s Q1 2024 results here: https://lnkd.in/gjqe7Yxk


Luxury Real Estate Acquisitions Continue to be Hot, Putting New Pressures on Content Strategy

April 4, 2024

On April 4, Kering announced that it would be making Europe’s largest property investment in over two years by buying Via Monte Napoleone 8 in Milan from Blackstone for €1.3 billion. Despite issuing a rare warning in mid-March that Q1 revenues would be down 10 percent year-over-year after a couple of years of underperformance in a hot luxury market, Kering has moved to take control of the flagship property that currently houses a Saint Laurent store as well as Prada Group and Café Cova, owned by LVMH.

This announcement is the latest in the number of large real estate acquisitions by luxury giants. In January, Kering announced its purchase of the $963 million building at the corner of Fifth Avenue and 56th street in New York while in December of last year LVMH invested €1 billion for 150 Champs-Élysées in Paris and Prada purchased the 724 Fifth Avenue location in New York that it had been leasing for $424 million.

It is notable that these massive real estate investments come at a time when the future trajectory of digital luxury commerce has become less certain with the closure of MATCHESFASHION LIMITED and instability at FARFETCH, two of the cornerstones that platformed the industry’s head long rush into online sales during the pandemic, and which resulted in years of exceptional revenue growth for most companies.

The prospect that large luxury organizations will be putting together new and likely “immersive” customer experiences in grand locations will offer opportunities as well as new challenges. Luxury brands are struggling to set in place consistent brand stories across their growing list of customer touchpoint channels. As Fashion Strategy Weekly, omnichannel content strategies will help turn touchpoint by touchpoint strategies (e.g. digital, retail stories, printed materials, product packaging) into more effective and scalable engagements with customers. Without such a strategy, these new real estate acquisitions may result in separate brand content generation that is less than the sum of its parts.

Kering shares were up around 90 basis in intraday Paris trading today at the time of publication.


Luxury Shares Continue to Take a Beating After PVH Profit Warning

April 2, 2024

The share prices of luxury companies have taken a beating since Kering’s alarming Q1 profit warning on March 19 and this bearish momentum may well continue into this earnings season after PVH Corp announced that 2024 revenues would fall 6 to 7 percent. This is sharply lower than an already negative market view that revenue would be down just over 2 percent and has sent PVH’s shares down over 20 percent today. The owner of Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein pointed to much slower than excepted European sales as the key source of its weaker overall revenues.

Luxury shares have had two major momentum shifts so far this year. Expectations for a normalization of sales growth after extraordinary growth during the pandemic drove down our FSW High Frequency All Luxury Index by over 6 percent from the start of the year until mid-January. Yet very strong earnings reports by Hermès, Brunello Cuccinelli, Zegna, Ferrari and others and a good earnings report by industry giant LVMH powered share prices up by over 20 percent from mid-January to the end of March. Yet, the index has started to return to earth again since Kering’s profit warning.

The FSW Index closed down around 2 percent today while PVH’s American peers Ralph Lauren and Tapestry closed down over 4 percent.

Despite this recent run of bad news, analysts expect a strong Q1 earnings report from the industry’s major brands. LVMH announced today that it will release its results on April 16.


What’s happening at Gucci and what does it mean for the rest of the luxury industry?

March 20, 2024

On Tuesday, Kering issued an alarming profit warning that group revenues would plunge 10 percent in Q1 2024. This is sharply steeper than the 6 percent decline in Q4 and, more alarming still, a sharp departure from many analysts’ expectations for positive growth in the first three months of the year.

The statement from Kering warned that H1 would be tough due to weak Gucci sales in Asia Pacific. Gucci comprises about half of Kering’s group revenues, and the guidance was to expect a 20 percent plunge in Gucci sales in Asia during Q1.

Economic growth is expected to slow in China during 2024. The government expects GDP to grow by 5.0 percent after hitting 5.2 percent in 2022 though the market expects even weaker results. However, other luxury brands expect continued strong sales in Asia this year.

The market reacted swiftly with Kering shares down around 13 percent since the statement. Other luxury brand stock prices came under some pressure after the Kering plunge but have since experienced a small bounce back.

The question now is whether Kering is pointing to over optimistic expectations for the rest of the luxury industry in H1? Kering has underperformed for years under slew of management changes and strategy re-directions. So perhaps this is an idiosyncratic, Kering-specific, risk? Yet, this is a space to watch.

Kering's statement is available here: https://www.kering.com/en/news/preliminary-information-regarding-the-first-quarter/


Prada Group Posts Strong FY23 Growth

March 7, 2024

The Prada Group reported strong FY23 growth at an investors' call today, with revenues growing by 17 percent (at constant exchange rates), mostly in line with analyst expectations. Adjusted EBIT growth was 26 percent, generating a 22.5 percent margin.

Growth was exceptionally strong for Miu Miu, which comprises 15 percent of group revenues, with revenues growing by 58 percent for the FY after a searing 82 percent growth rate in Q4. Prada, comprising 83 percent of revenues, also reported solid growth of 12 percent for the FY, while Church's was down 13 percent for the year.

This rate of growth puts Prada Group near the median of major luxury brands this earnings season as the group trailed the top performers such as Hermès, Zegna, and Brunello Cucinelli and their 20+ percent rates of growth. Still, it was above industry giant LVMH's roughly 9 percent growth rate.

One of the differentiators of the good from the great performers for FY23 was the evenness of sales performance across geographies. Weaker performers have struggled in the Americas and Europe and saw growth driven principally in Asia, while top performers continued to report pandemic-era-like bullish growth rates in all regions. Prada joins the good in this sense, with sales growth especially strong in Asia ex Japan (24 percent) and Japan (44 percent), while growth in Europe was good but not great (14 percent), and sales in the Americas were about zero.

Prada's share price has outperformed the broader FSW High Frequency Luxury Monitor All Luxury index this year (see chart below). There may not be too much more room to grow with a P/E of 25.4x, which is on par with LVMH (26.0x) and Zegna (29.4x) but well below the astronomical levels of Brunello Cucinelli (66.3x) and Hermès (51.8x).


Momentum continues for luxury equities apart from Kering, which lost steam on the same day as Sabato De Sarno's second Gucci show at Milan FW24.

February 23, 2024

Our FSW High Frequency Luxury Monitor finished up 3.2 percent on the week, driven by broad based price appreciation across the index's 18 constituent luxury stocks. The biggest gainers were Zegna (up 6.8 percent after its strong preliminary FY23 earnings report) and Ferrari (6.5 percent) while industry giant LVMH was up 3.4 percent.

Kering finished down -0.60 percent on the week after a big sell off on Friday took its share price down by just over 2 percent and broke its streak of six trading days in positive territory. Probably no causality, but today's sell off intensified after Gucci's Milan show with the stock losing over 1 percent from the start of the show until the close of trading in Paris.


Zegna posts a huge FY 2023

February 22, 2024

The Zegna Group, about eight months after the addition of Tom Ford Fashion, delivered spectacular preliminary FY23 revenues numbers on February 21. Annual revenue growth came in at 27.6 percent after a monster Q4 of 40.1 percent growth. Even if we focus on just organic growth, the numbers were big with roughly 19 percent growth for Q4 and FY23.

Growth was strong across the group’s product segments and geographies, the latter of which has been rare during this luxury earnings season. The group’s largest line, Zegna (roughly 70 percent of revenues) chipped in EUR 1.3 billion (19.5 percent organic growth), Thom Browne (20 percent of group revenue) reported EUR 380 million (up 17.8 percent), and the newly acquired Tom Ford generated EUR 236 million during April-December.

Joining the ranks of other “quiet(er)” luxury groups, such as Hermès and Brunello Cucinelli, Zegna reported double digit sales growth across all geographical regions, with growth especially strong in Asia (24 percent) and, though it only comprises 3.5 percent of revenues, Zegna took pains to break out the message that UAE grew over 30 percent.

Forward guidance was for more of the same. The medium-term outlook was for an adjusted compound EBIT growth rate of about 20 percent.

The markets have been pleased with Zegna this year with its share price rising around 25 percent as of intraday trading today, putting it above the 15 percent simple growth rate of the FSW High Frequency Luxury Monitor All-Luxury Index and the roughly 6 percent price appreciation of the S&P 500. Its valuation remains pretty rich with a P/E ratio for the next estimated fiscal year of 29.2x, which is well below the stratospheric levels of Brunello Cuccinelli (63.5x) and Hermès (51.3x), but well above industry giant LVMH (25.6x).

You can review Zegna’s preliminary FY23 results here.


Hermès’ FY23 earnings support shows that a focus on high-net worth consumers pays off in this market for soft luxury.

February 9, 2024

With the release Hermès’ FY23 results today, we have now seen the release of most of the major luxury firm’s results this earnings season. We still have a few to go, but we can start to draw some lessons. Going into earnings season, the markets expected that macroeconomic headwinds would disadvantage soft luxury and brands dependent on aspirational consumers. This hypothesis has been broadly confirmed: Richemont, with its stable of watch and jewelry brands, gave us an upside surprise; Kering commented that its poor results resulted from slowing demand from aspirational consumers; high price pointed Brunello Cucinelli and Ferrari were spectacular, and LVMH, which is so heavily diversified across most fashion luxury verticals with its 60 subsidiaries, was resilient.

In Hermès, we have a soft luxury goods specialist whose price points are better aligned with high-net-worth households. And Hermès’ consumers massively delivered with full-year earnings growth of 21 percent, at constant exchange rates, with gross margins growing by just under 2 percentage points at 72.3 percent.

Unlike most of its competitors, Hermès delivered strong growth across all geographies with the contribution of growth from Asia (40 percent), the Americas (19 percent), Europe (13 percent), Japan (10 percent), and France (10 percent) remaining almost unchanged from last year. Even LVMH did not deliver double digit growth across all of its product lines like Hermes.

This has paid off for investors with dividends growing by over 60 percent and dividends per share up over 15 percent.

The market expects that earnings will slow to around 7 percent in FY24, but this seems unjustifiably pessimistic given Hermès’ position in the price-volume-mix triangle. Hermès has powered past most of its competitors in the luxury bull market of the past few years by wielding pricing power while maintaining strong volume growth with a revenue-enhancing mix of products. With Hermès expected raise prices between 8 and 9 percent this year and a product mix that is already tilted towards more resilient consumers, we expect double digit growth next year.

Valuations for Hermès are pretty eye watering with a P/E (NTM) ratio of 52.7x as compared with 24.9x for LVMH and 20.0x for Richemont. Among the FSW High Frequency All Luxury Index constituents only LVMH constituent Christian Dior and Brunello Cucinelli have richer valuations.

Hermès' share price is up over 10 percent on the day with a total return of over 15 percent year-to-date.

Gucci delivers the anticipated bad news while Tapestry and Ralph Lauren over-perform

February 8, 2024

The earnings season for luxury delivered a lot of news today with Gucci, Ralph Lauren, Tapestry, and Tapestry’s target Capri all coming to the market with results.

As we reported earlier in the week, the market expected another poor outcome from Kering for its full year 2023 results and the results were not good but not as bad as consensus expected. François Pinault announced that revenue was down 4 percent in 2023 from 2022 levels, driven by declines across all of its major maisons (Kering, 51% of revenues, down 4%; Saint Laurent, 17% of revenues, down 5%; Bottega Veneta, 9% of revenues, down 4%). Only Kering Eyewear (5.5% of revenues), which principally has a wholesale distribution model, was up on the year at 7%. These results look pretty ugly when compared to industry giant LVHM, which reported a 8.8% increase in 2023 revenues last month.

The market is hoping that we may have reached trough Kering, particularly Gucci, as a flurry of management reshuffles and creation direction resets over the past year yields results. In addition, the group made a number of large real estate investments in 2023 (including a 25,000-square-foot space for a new Paris flagship at 235 Saint-Honoré and 12-14 Rue Castiglione) and acquisitions (Creed and Maui Jim) which pushed down free cash flow by 40 percent and raised net debt by 6.2 billion Euros but hopefully laid the groundwork for a rebound.

In the Q&A session, Kering management confirmed that they plan to target wealthier consumers to power a return to growth and pointed out that macroeconomic headwinds had negatively impacted aspirational consumers and helped pull down Gucci sales in 2023.

In contrast, two of America’s largest luxury houses came in strong. Ralph Lauren – reporting Q3 results for its FY24 – announced annual revenues had jumped 6 percent, as strong growth in Asia (16% growth) and Europe (11%) offset flat growth in North America. Tapestry (home to Coach, Kate Spade, and Stuart Weitzman) also reported positive, though more modest, growth of 3% for its Q2 with again growth in Asia and Europe compensating for stagnating growth in North America. Tapestry’s takeover target, Capri and its brands Versace, Jimmy Choo, and Michael Kors, met analysts’ expectations for poor growth with FY23 revenue down 6 percent from 2022 and forecasts for almost unchanged revenue growth in FY24.

Stock prices for Ralph Lauren and Tapestry surged by 16.8 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively, on the day, making them the top performing firms in the FSW High Frequency Luxury Monitor All-Luxury Index. With P/E (NTM) ratios of 13.7x and 9.3x, RL and Tapestry looks like good buys. By comparison, Hermès trades at 50.3x and LVMH at 24.7x.

Preview of Kering's February 8 Earnings Report & Near-Term Prospects

February 6, 2024

Kering has been the sick man among major luxury conglomerates for a number of years. There are many ways to measure its relative underperformance. Looking at its share price, it has fallen almost 40 percent since the start of the pandemic. This compares catastrophically poorly with LVMH and Richemont, whose shares have risen 80 and 90 percent, respectively. Looking at just 2024, Kering’s share price is down around 1 percent while the FSW All Luxury Index is up over 8 percent.


In terms of vision and stability, Kering has really struggled in the past few years. The departure of Marco Bizzarri as Gucci CEO in July of last year was a shock. Gucci contributes over 60 percent of the Kering’s operating income and his departure contributed to a sense of directional uncertainty that began with Alessandro Michele’s departure in November 2022.

Things have not been a total disaster as the luxury group is still very profitable (posting net income of €1.79 billion in the first half of last year) but the trend has been in the shape of nosedive (that €1.79 billion was down 10 percent on the prior year) and it has performed exceptionally poorly when compared with its peers.

So what should we expect when Kering releases its full year 2023 returns on February 8? The market expects another poor installment with the average EBITA (earnings before interest, taxes, and amortization) forecast at €6.7 billion, down over 9 percent from 2022. Since FSW is more interested in looking at long-term trends, let’s assess the historical rolling EBITA estimate and stock price for the next 12 months (NTM) below. This gives a picture of the continuation of a down trending earnings estimate (blue line) and is reflected in a free falling stock price (black line).

Yet could this be a storm before the calm? The market does expect positive earnings growth next year (3.2 percent) and very strong growth in 2025 (~ 10 percent). Presumably this optimism originates from the view that the management transitions at Kering slow down and the new strategic directions yield returns amid a hopefully improving macroeconomic backdrop. We remain fairly optimistic about Kering long-term given its commitment to strong brand storytelling across a range of innovative platforms.

You can keep track of Kering’s financial releases on their investors’ page: https://lnkd.in/gN8hVY9r

Ferrari Races Ahead of the Rest of the Luxury Industry

February 1, 2024

So far this earnings season luxury brands, with an exception or two, have beat market expectations for the period of October to December and full year 2023.

Ferrari joined the beat-the-expectations club with their earnings announcement today and we even got a bit of a bonus. On the bonus side, it appears that Lewis Hamilton will make a shock move to its Formula 1 car in 2025. On the earning side, the brand reported full year 2023 earnings that beat Wall Street’s expectations and broke earnings records.

The luxury automaker launched five new models in 2023 en route to earnings (before interest and taxes) of 1.6 billion Euros, up 32 percent from 2022 levels. This translates into earnings per share of 6.90 Euros, crushing expectations for 6.73 Euros and setting a corporate record. Next year continues to look bullish with Ferrari expecting earnings per share to rise to 7.5, which is mostly in line with Wall Street forecasts.

Ferrari’s shares surged by about 12.5 percent today, giving investors in the company's shares (ticker: RACE) at 15 percent total return in 2024, dwarfing the rest of the luxury industry.

You can find Ferrari’s results here: https://lnkd.in/eu-f8ZWz

The next major luxury earnings announcements will come from the US when Ralph Lauren, Tapestry, and Capri (the latter two not yet merged) on February 8.


A bull market in luxury stocks in beginning to form

January 29, 2024

The bull market in luxury stocks continued into Monday with every stock in the FSW High Frequency Luxury Monitor All Luxury Index finishing up on a day with some break taking price appreciation: Dior up over 12%, Moncler 9.4%, Kering 6.6%, Cucinelli 6.3%, and Richemont 6.2%. There was no major announcements on the day and this reflects a carry on from a change in investor sentiment over LVMH's strong 2023 report last week.

As the below shoes, our All Luxury Index is now about a percentage point up on the S&P 500 for the year.


After a strong 2023 earnings report, LVMH's share price powered past the S&P500 for the year.

January 26, 2024

This was the biggest week of the year for luxury stocks, aided by LVMH's (slight) overshooting of analysts' revenue expectations for 2023. Those results, which were released on Thursday, powered LVMH's share price up by 11.5 percent over Thursday and Friday (as compared with a 0.49 percent gain for the S&P 500) and lifted the LVMH wealth path up above that of the broader market for the first time this year (see below).

The FSW High Frequency Luxury Monitor Pure Luxury Index gained almost 8 percent during the week as all 15 constituent companies, apart from Ferrari and Capri, saw positive gains. Apart from LMVH, the biggest gainers were Tapestry (6.4 percent) and Hermès (5.9 percent).

We will dip into luxury automotives next week as Ferrari will release full year 2023 results on February 1.


At today’s 2023 investors’ call Bernard Arnault expressed no concern of slowing growth at LVMH.

January 25, 2024

Bernard Arnault did not express any concern about slowing growth at LVMH today, pointing out that its pricing power comes from product mix and pursuing a growth at all costs strategy reduces brand exclusivity.

After the close of markets in Paris today, LVMHreported 2023 revenue growth of 8.8% when compared with 2022, which was slightly ahead of the market consensus forecast of 8.5%. Organic growth of 13% was pulled down by a negative 4% currency effect owing to weakness in the Euro.

Though these numbers were in line with most forecasts, they tell a cautionary tale for 2024 as growth slowed markedly over the course of the year: Q1 revenue growth was 17%, Q2 17%, Q3 9%, Q4 10%. End of the year forecasts tend to be good leading indicators for the start of the next year (unless there are strong seasonal dimensions, which is not the case here) and these dynamics point to a slowdown for H1 2024.

The geographic composition of sales was mostly unchanged from last year despite the surge in demand from Chinese consumers in Q1: U.S. 25%, Europe 25%, Asia (x. Japan) 31%, Japan 7%, Others 12%.

Among product lines, the gainers, year-over-year, were Selective Retailing 20%, Fashion & Leather Goods 9%, and Watches & Jewelry 3%. Wine & Spirits again lagged and was down 7 percent. This is a breakdown of product lines as a percentage of total 2023 revenues: Selective Retailing 7.6%, F&L 49%, W&J 13%, W&S 7.6%.

Like the rest of the world, LVMH was hit by the effects of the higher global interest rate environment. The cost of net financial net rose from 17 million euros to 367.

LVMH's share price ($LVMHF) surged by over 500 basis points today while the FSW High Frequency Luxury Monitor all-luxury index closed up 287 basis points.

You can find the presentation materials and a replay of the investors' call on the LVMH website: https://lnkd.in/efkeVz5n


Ahead of LVMH’s full year 2023 earnings release tomorrow, analysts expect a weak annual growth rate.

January 24, 2024

Tomorrow we will see the highly anticipated full year 2023 results for LVMH after the market's close. With a $360 billion valuation, LVMH is by far the largest player in the highly consolidated luxury market and this release will draw broad attention.

What should we expect? Looking at sales, the market consensus is that a robust holiday shopping period will drive strong sequential quarter-on-quarter growth (17.8 percent), but anemic when compared to Q4 of last year (3.6 percent growth). As per the below, this translates into the expectation that sales will rise over 10 percent for the full year for 2023 and drift even lower over the next two years.


Our new weighted luxury stock market index shows the industry trailing the broader market heading into earnings season

January 23, 2024

Most "luxury" oriented ETFs include a wide universe of companies that many would not regard as luxury. Though what brands comprise luxury versus premium and so forth is not set in stone, many ETFs include firms such as Tesla and Nike which probably would not fit most definitions. These can be quite distorting, particularly given that many ETFs are cap weighted and Tesla's $660+ billion valuation dwarfs true luxury firms with LVMH being closest at just over $360 billion.

We constructed a narrower, cap weighted, index of what we regarded as the top 15 pure luxury play stocks. The below shows how this index has performed against the S&P 500 since the start of the year. The trajectory of these wealth paths will not surprise many so far (your $100 investment in luxury would be sitting at $93.81 while an S&P 100 index tracker would put you at $102.28) but this will be something to watch as the luxury earnings come in over the next week or so.

To keep on your radar: LVMH will release its next earnings report on January 25 and Dior will follow on January 29.


Apart from Richemont, luxury stocks continued to take a beating this week

January 19, 2024

While the S&P 500 hit a record high at the close of this week, luxury stocks continued to take a beating over the past five with almost the entire sector in the red. Year-to-date returns for LVMH and Kering exceed 10 percent while Hugo Boss is down close to 15 percent. Among the major multi-brand companies, only Richemont stands out, so far, after reporting strong earnings this week with the stock up about 50 basis points year-to-date. Next week we will see how LVMH fared as full year 2023 earnings will be reported on January 25.


Richemont reports strong Oct-Dec, driven by strong retail sales

January 18, 2024

After some mixed results at the start of the luxury earnings season from Burberry (downside surprise) and Brunello Cucinelli (upside surprise), Richemont reported today that October to December 2023 sales were up 8 percent at constant exchange rates with broad-based growth across all geographies (https://lnkd.in/etTsWjem). Growth in Japan was 18 percent, Asia Pacific x. Japan 13 percent, Middle East and Africa 10 percent, and Americas 8 percent though Europe was down 3 percent.

As many predicted, hard luxury looks set to be the main industry growth driver during this post-pandemic normalization period. Growth in Richemont’s jewelry groups generated the strongest growth at 12 percent.


U.S. and China macro data signal strong Oct-Dec for luxury

January 17, 2024

Now that the 2024 forecasts for the luxury industry have been laid out (including that of FSW: https://lnkd.in/eD6FtP4v) we start the job of observing and acting on those trends. Looking a bit backwards in the hope that it gives a small glimpse of future trends, the U.S. and China released Q4 macroeconomic numbers this week that will be of interest to luxury industry watchers.

Today the U.S. released monthly December retail sales which showed us that, after 13 consecutive months of year-over-year declines, inflation adjusted growth was 1.4 percent – the first annual increase since October 2022. If we break out the types of spending that drove this growth (see chart below), we see that nominal annual growth rates were more than 10 percent for food, electronics, health/personal care, cars, and clothing. For luxury watchers, the department store number is worth a look, despite changes in wholesaling trends, and that was especially impressive with a month-to-month break out gain of over 3 percent – by far the biggest monthly winner. Some trends to bear in mind as we look forward to the start of the luxury earnings season over the next few days.

In China, there was no surprise from yesterday’s announcement that 2023 GDP growth came in at 5.2 percent, mostly in line with market expectations and slightly above the government’s target. What the financial press really picked up on was less that this was a fairly poor economic growth number, but the surprise announcement that the country’s population fell to 1.4 billion with births continue to fall. As we noted in our analysis of demography and the geography of luxury sales (https://lnkd.in/egusaCvc) this is a big deal with Asia, excluding China, comprising about 40 percent of industry sales and the region has generally been much more dynamic than the U.S. and Europe for a number of years. But the aging of Asia, especially China, will challenge both the growth of the industry and the way that the industry markets products. China’s working age population was nearly 15 percent in the mid-2000s and now it is below 5 percent, more like the U.S. and Europe.


Bank of America forecasts mixed results from luxury in 2024

January 15, 2024

This nice piece shares BoA’s 2024 outlook for the luxury sector, which finds that while the whole sector will be coming off the post-pandemic bull market to growth rates that are more in line with historical experience, there will be more heterogeneity generally with some continuing to win (Hermès) and others experiencing new challenges (Burberry).

💡FSW discusses why this period of slower growth creates new opportunities for the industry. https://lnkd.in/eM86KajU

💡The FSW 2024 preview concurs with many of BofA’s forecasts and details their implications for luxury strategy makers. https://lnkd.in/eD6FtP4v

💡Bryce Quillin PhD spoke with Glossy last week about how to understand the big revenue numbers that Brunello Cucinelli reported last week. https://lnkd.in/gPdcAUKF

https://lnkd.in/dxtBseGP


Chinese regulators approve Tapestry-Capri deal

January 10, 2024

Seeking Alpha reports that, after some uncertainty, China's regulators have approved Tapestry's $8.5 billion purchase of Capri (https://lnkd.in/e9fyPRb7). It is not clear whether or how severe concerns may be been over the implications of the merger that will bring together Coach, Kate Spade, Stuart Weitzman, Versace, Jimmy Choo, and Michael Kors. Our understanding is that U.S. regulators are continuing the review the deal.

Glossy reported that Tapestry CEO Joanne C. Crevoiserat defended as necessary in the highly consolidated luxury market: “We are competing with very large global competitors,” Crevoiserat said. “So having more scale will help us, as an American company, compete.” (https://lnkd.in/eBtPJJPt)

Capri shares ($CPRI) were up over 150 basis points on opening this morning.

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Brunello Cucinelli earnings crush analyst expectations

January 8, 2024

As reported by Glossy, 2023 was a stronger than expected year for Brunello Cucinelli, reporting Q4 growth of 15.6% y/y, slightly higher than consensus expectations.

Looking ahead, Bryce Quillin PhD commented:

“Brands like Cucinelli should be able to generate strong margins into 2024 by continuing to exercise strong pricing power that should not materially hurt volume growth,” said Quillin. “Their product mix is well aligned with the enduring trend for quiet luxury amid turbulent macroeconomic times. This is in contrast with much of the [luxury] industry, where we expect weaker price growth opportunities this year.”

https://www.glossy.co/fashion/luxury/brunello-cucinelli-defied-luxurys-softening-in-2023/


Luxury stocks struggle though MasterCard points to some reason for optimism

January 6, 2024

The first week of the year was a weak one for most major luxury stocks as investors began acting on repeated warnings from analysts (including FSW High Frequency Luxury) and luxury CFOs that this year, particularly H1, would represent a return to normal growth rates for some (especially diversified brands and those catering to HNW) and weaker than historically normal for others (especially those that rely on aspiration consumers). The Stoxx Europe Luxury 10 index was down 3.2 percent while broader, sector-weighted, indexes such as the Eurostoxx 50 and the S&P 500 were fairly flat.

One piece of good news that may serve as leading indicator for a better than expected Q4 for some luxury brands is that the MasterCard Spending Pulse™ (https://lnkd.in/e2zN7XpE) indicator pointed to decent consumer holiday spending especially for apparel though jewelry sales looked poor.

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Luxury stocks take a beating

January 3, 2024

On the back of expectations for a weak of revenue growth this year, luxury stocks have started the year with a beating as the Stoxx Europe 10 index continued the downward trend that started in mid-December and is down by over 200 basis points today (chart below). We do not read this as a potentially poor year historically for luxury brands, but as a normalization of revenue growth after the post-pandemic surge. However, diverse names (LVMH) and those that cater to wealthier clients (Hermes) will perform better than those who depend more heavily on aspirational consumers.

Stoxx Europe 10 Index Level, October 1, 2023 - January 3, 2024

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